Everyone have a fun and safe Halloween.
Will be enjoying myself with my son.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Are There Still Shorts to be Found?
After 2 days and 900 points down, I am still some how finding shorts. The market is moving so fast it is hard to feel safe recommending new ideas.
It is difficult to guess at a bottom.
I was speaking to one friend who thought the market would calm down after the election. I don't think that will make much difference but hopefully I will be wrong.
I saw 2 articles this week, one said the economy may not be in bad shape and another that said we were at a bottom. Taking a contrary view you would have to wonder about both.
When things are on the front page of various news papers bet the other way.
So, got to look forward to the world series. That should be fun.
It is difficult to guess at a bottom.
I was speaking to one friend who thought the market would calm down after the election. I don't think that will make much difference but hopefully I will be wrong.
I saw 2 articles this week, one said the economy may not be in bad shape and another that said we were at a bottom. Taking a contrary view you would have to wonder about both.
When things are on the front page of various news papers bet the other way.
So, got to look forward to the world series. That should be fun.
Monday, October 20, 2008
A Typical Weekend
Since there is more to my life than just the money stuff. Here is a sample weekend (well, this last weekend):
After a bit of work on Saturday I went to a charity event on Saturday night. It was a gambling event and I didn't win anything. But I sure had a lot of fun.
On Sunday I spent the day with my son and ended up going to a friends house for an afternoon barbecue.
Sunday night we watched Pushing Daisies. It is a family favorite.
After my wife and son went to bed I watched the Rays beat the Red Sox and advance to the world series. Wow worst to first, what a great story. The eighth inning was great. But after blowing a 7 run lead in game 5 the rays gutted it out when they could have folded.
The 49ers lost to the New York Giants. They stink. Maybe they will play better next week.
For now its time to get ready for the world series.
After a bit of work on Saturday I went to a charity event on Saturday night. It was a gambling event and I didn't win anything. But I sure had a lot of fun.
On Sunday I spent the day with my son and ended up going to a friends house for an afternoon barbecue.
Sunday night we watched Pushing Daisies. It is a family favorite.
After my wife and son went to bed I watched the Rays beat the Red Sox and advance to the world series. Wow worst to first, what a great story. The eighth inning was great. But after blowing a 7 run lead in game 5 the rays gutted it out when they could have folded.
The 49ers lost to the New York Giants. They stink. Maybe they will play better next week.
For now its time to get ready for the world series.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Monday was Wild
The market has been crazy for weeks but Monday was really wild.
We were up 980 points a new record for sure. The problem now becomes, what happens from here. I think the market will have to at least retest or get close to Fridays low as a start.
Earnings are starting to come out and we will see how cautious people are and what tone that sets for the market. It could be very volatile from here until the end of the year.
I think that there will be plenty of stocks that will go down whether the market is strong or not.
We were up 980 points a new record for sure. The problem now becomes, what happens from here. I think the market will have to at least retest or get close to Fridays low as a start.
Earnings are starting to come out and we will see how cautious people are and what tone that sets for the market. It could be very volatile from here until the end of the year.
I think that there will be plenty of stocks that will go down whether the market is strong or not.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Are We Any Better Off?
The market isn't responding to the liquidity added to the economy yet. The feds agreed to buy commercial paper issued directly from companies and in a few weeks the bailout package will start to hit.
In the meantime, yesterday I watched the market go from down 200 to up 150 to down 250 to up again and finally closing down nearly 200.
The actions of the government are not making anyone more confident in America or its money.
The Dow is down 37% from the highs it set last fall and people are in a panic. It seems like the market has no chance and things are moving down so fast it is hard to find something to short.
You can basically short anything right now so fundamental research isn’t playing any part in anything.
Today, Thursday, we were down another 678 and I have no idea what to think.
Mutual funds which are supposed to be the safe havens of the market are down huge amounts over the past year. Fidelity Magellan is down 44%, I doubt people ever thought that could happen. I certainly didn’t. Peoples lives are changing and mostly for the worst.
In the meantime, yesterday I watched the market go from down 200 to up 150 to down 250 to up again and finally closing down nearly 200.
The actions of the government are not making anyone more confident in America or its money.
The Dow is down 37% from the highs it set last fall and people are in a panic. It seems like the market has no chance and things are moving down so fast it is hard to find something to short.
You can basically short anything right now so fundamental research isn’t playing any part in anything.
Today, Thursday, we were down another 678 and I have no idea what to think.
Mutual funds which are supposed to be the safe havens of the market are down huge amounts over the past year. Fidelity Magellan is down 44%, I doubt people ever thought that could happen. I certainly didn’t. Peoples lives are changing and mostly for the worst.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Bailout
The bailout has arrived and people may be figuring out it isn't the answer to the liquidity the banks need or the stock market.
It didn't really help the markets as they closed down 150 points. It was interesting to watch because people felt a sigh of relief early, the market was up 250 at one point during the day. Then President Bush spoke and the market collapsed. It has been that way for 8 years; every time the President comes on TV he kills the stock market.
But, I digress, I don't think people realize how hard it is to expand a business or just operate without banks loaning money.
Right now they aren't and it is throwing people into a tizzy.
If the fed doesn't make things easier pretty fast people will lose interest in the bailout the stock market will suffer, the dollar will become less valuable and inflation will be a bigger threat. We had a glimpse of that today. Our market and world markets need a strong US so there isn't a world wide collapse.
This morning most of the European and Asian markets were down 5% and the US market was down over 5% at one point. The bailout and subsequent actions need to start and then they need to work to make money more available to the general public and businesses.
Then we can get an economic footing and make job growth come back.
It didn't really help the markets as they closed down 150 points. It was interesting to watch because people felt a sigh of relief early, the market was up 250 at one point during the day. Then President Bush spoke and the market collapsed. It has been that way for 8 years; every time the President comes on TV he kills the stock market.
But, I digress, I don't think people realize how hard it is to expand a business or just operate without banks loaning money.
Right now they aren't and it is throwing people into a tizzy.
If the fed doesn't make things easier pretty fast people will lose interest in the bailout the stock market will suffer, the dollar will become less valuable and inflation will be a bigger threat. We had a glimpse of that today. Our market and world markets need a strong US so there isn't a world wide collapse.
This morning most of the European and Asian markets were down 5% and the US market was down over 5% at one point. The bailout and subsequent actions need to start and then they need to work to make money more available to the general public and businesses.
Then we can get an economic footing and make job growth come back.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Commercial Real Estate
I read an interesting article yesterday about commercial real estate: http://www.efinancialnews.com/
Commercial real estate hasn't been effected by the economy as much as residential has.
But, it is starting to be a problem in various parts of England and Europe. The U.S Vacancy rates in commercial properties are just starting to rise in New York, which has been immune from problems for a long time.
Vacancies will go up and rates should drop.
Up to this point commercial real estate hasn't been affected the same way residential has. I think that has already started to change. The above article explains it very well.
Commercial real estate hasn't been effected by the economy as much as residential has.
But, it is starting to be a problem in various parts of England and Europe. The U.S Vacancy rates in commercial properties are just starting to rise in New York, which has been immune from problems for a long time.
Vacancies will go up and rates should drop.
Up to this point commercial real estate hasn't been affected the same way residential has. I think that has already started to change. The above article explains it very well.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Will the Bailout Really Work?
The market is in trouble and I don't know what will happen. They passed the bill and now people don't know if congress will mess it up.
The fertilizer stocks got trashed today and people who made a bunch of money playing the commodity game may have been hurt bad today. Mosaic is down 37% percent today, Bunge down about the same and Potash down 30%.
It is hard to make those losses up.
Here is one sarcastic view of the bailout: http://strategerycapital.com/index.php?slug=home
The fertilizer stocks got trashed today and people who made a bunch of money playing the commodity game may have been hurt bad today. Mosaic is down 37% percent today, Bunge down about the same and Potash down 30%.
It is hard to make those losses up.
Here is one sarcastic view of the bailout: http://strategerycapital.com/index.php?slug=home
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