Are We Any Better Off?

The market isn't responding to the liquidity added to the economy yet. The feds agreed to buy commercial paper issued directly from companies and in a few weeks the bailout package will start to hit.

In the meantime, yesterday I watched the market go from down 200 to up 150 to down 250 to up again and finally closing down nearly 200.

The actions of the government are not making anyone more confident in America or its money.

The Dow is down 37% from the highs it set last fall and people are in a panic. It seems like the market has no chance and things are moving down so fast it is hard to find something to short.

You can basically short anything right now so fundamental research isn’t playing any part in anything.

Today, Thursday, we were down another 678 and I have no idea what to think.

Mutual funds which are supposed to be the safe havens of the market are down huge amounts over the past year. Fidelity Magellan is down 44%, I doubt people ever thought that could happen. I certainly didn’t. Peoples lives are changing and mostly for the worst.

Bailout

The bailout has arrived and people may be figuring out it isn't the answer to the liquidity the banks need or the stock market.

It didn't really help the markets as they closed down 150 points. It was interesting to watch because people felt a sigh of relief early, the market was up 250 at one point during the day. Then President Bush spoke and the market collapsed. It has been that way for 8 years; every time the President comes on TV he kills the stock market.

But, I digress, I don't think people realize how hard it is to expand a business or just operate without banks loaning money.

Right now they aren't and it is throwing people into a tizzy.

If the fed doesn't make things easier pretty fast people will lose interest in the bailout the stock market will suffer, the dollar will become less valuable and inflation will be a bigger threat. We had a glimpse of that today. Our market and world markets need a strong US so there isn't a world wide collapse.

This morning most of the European and Asian markets were down 5% and the US market was down over 5% at one point. The bailout and subsequent actions need to start and then they need to work to make money more available to the general public and businesses.

Then we can get an economic footing and make job growth come back.

Commercial Real Estate

I read an interesting article yesterday about commercial real estate: http://www.efinancialnews.com/

Commercial real estate hasn't been effected by the economy as much as residential has.

But, it is starting to be a problem in various parts of England and Europe. The U.S Vacancy rates in commercial properties are just starting to rise in New York, which has been immune from problems for a long time.

Vacancies will go up and rates should drop.

Up to this point commercial real estate hasn't been affected the same way residential has. I think that has already started to change. The above article explains it very well.

Will the Bailout Really Work?

The market is in trouble and I don't know what will happen. They passed the bill and now people don't know if congress will mess it up.

The fertilizer stocks got trashed today and people who made a bunch of money playing the commodity game may have been hurt bad today. Mosaic is down 37% percent today, Bunge down about the same and Potash down 30%.

It is hard to make those losses up.

Here is one sarcastic view of the bailout: http://strategerycapital.com/index.php?slug=home

Seems to be Getting Crazier

Monday was crazy after the democrats and republicans started pointing fingers when the bailout vote faded into the sunset.

Like I said the buck doesn't stop here it moves the next finger.

There isn't any musical chairs so it doesn't stop.

I worked all day in new shorts but it is getting weird when the market goes down nearly 800 points. People should be worried about the economy and some are. When the market is down so much I don't find much else to do besides work.

Black Monday

Well the politicians messed up further what was already a mess.

Someone should have a sign that says the "the finger pointing starts here" circa 2008, any politician in the U.S. Congress ("instead of the buck stops here" President Truman).

Really amazing and I hope I am wrong about the problems that may ensue from this mess. Will we have a depression, maybe, I just don't really know.

The economy will be dead for a long time to come.

So much money has been lost and so many people will be affected.

I watched the news all weekend and thought we had a good chance this would go through. Instead it didn't make it.

Yes I would call this a Black Monday and Quicksand Tuesday followed by Black Tar Wednesday.

Slow Government

On Friday it looked like the bail out was toast and the market opened down 150 points.

I was supposed to go out for breakfast with a guy but he canceled because he thought the market would be down huge for the day. I came in and watched the market go up and down and finally close up on the day.

Now I am seeing headlines about the solar tax credits and whether they will make it through the next legislative hurdle. I am guessing it won't only because oil is at 100 dollars a barrel and why would we want to become less dependent on foreign oil in the future (sarcasm, just in case you missed it).

I am sure it isn't as simple as that.

But solar energy is important so why can't our government figure out how to help out. It doesn't matter whether it is a bail out or solar energy, things just don't get accomplished in Washington, unless our President wants to start another war.